Author: Tara Maxwell

Summer is traditionally a busy season for real estate. Buyers come out in force and homeowners list their houses for sale hoping to capitalize on those buyers who are looking to purchase before the new school year. This year will be no different!

Buyers have already been out in force looking for their dream homes and more are on their way. The challenge is that the inventory of homes for sale has not kept up with demand, which has led to A LOT of competition for the homes that are available.

A recent article by the National Association of Realtors touched on the current market conditions:

“Realtors® in areas with strong job markets report that consumer frustration is rising. Home shoppers are increasingly struggling to find an affordable property to buy, and the prevalence of multiple bids is pushing prices further out of reach.”

Realtor.com went on to explain why buyers are flocking to the market in such big numbers:

“A booming economy and stable employment in most parts of the country have created a new generation of eager home buyers – and led to fevered price battles spilling over into some unexpected, smaller markets.”

Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research for Realtor.com had this to say about competition:

“Multiple-offer scenarios are no longer reserved to the usual big, fast-moving markets…demand for homes has spilled outward into secondary, smaller markets, and more buyers are gearing up to face fierce competition in more places around the country.”

Realtor.com looked at the number of homes that were selling above asking price to determine which markets were heating up. Below are the Top 10:

• Akron, OH
• Worcester, MA
• Lexington, KY
• Irvine, CA
• Greensboro, NC
• Sioux Falls, SD
• Madison, WI
• Louisville, KY
• Tacoma, WA
• Little Rock, AR

Bottom Line

Let’s get together to discuss our exact market conditions so that we can help you create a strategy to secure your new home in this competitive atmosphere!

Battling Buyer Fatigue

In areas with limited inventory and many buyers, multiple offers are common. This is a fast and frenzied situation which can be exhausting for all parties. Some buyers who have been working the market with no success can easily get frustrated, tired, and no longer wanting to take part. This is due to the hurriedness of the market, the urgency to see new listings, possibly spending hundreds of dollars for pre-inspections, getting emotionally-committed to a home and making an offer only to find that they didn’t get it…again.

If you are a buyer and are either actively searching now or are a buyer who has stepped out of the market to regroup, I want to assure you there are opportunities, possibly with a slight change in strategy. If your goals are indeed to buy in the next few months to a year, now is still the best time to do so as rising prices and interest rates will erode your buying power the longer you wait.

So how do you battle buyer fatigue and adjust your homebuying strategy? Here are three great ways:

1. Get competitive – Consider lowering your price point in order to increase your offer competitiveness. If you are currently searching for homes between $350,000-$400,000, consider searching for $300,000-$350,000 homes. This way, if you are competing, you can still offer an amount that you are comfortable with which can be high enough to get the sellers’ attention.
2. Evaluate your offer –Maybe an adjustment in the amount of earnest money or down payment would be effective. Perhaps going back to your lender and making sure you have not just gotten pre-approved but have gone through the entire underwriting process will make you a stronger buyer. If you are working with me, let’s take a look at the last few offers you made with fresh eyes. I will offer you options which you can implement as you are comfortable. I will also let you know the pros and cons of each so you can have a full picture of what these options can mean for your bottom line.
3. Look at homes that have been on the market for a while – Although what we are hearing from the media is that homes are flying off the market as soon as they come on, there is actually a large number of homes that have been on the market for weeks. Some sellers are pricing their homes aggressively – too aggressively – and when another home comes on the market that is a good substitution for the overpriced home, buyers are flocking to it, not the overpriced home. Therefore, the overpriced home sits on the market. The price may get reduced, but because it hasn’t sold, buyers assume something is wrong with it. Hint, hint – there may be nothing wrong with it besides it being priced too high at the outset. When you are ready to get back in the market, let’s look at all the inventory – homes that are priced just above your preferred price range (as these sellers may be anxious to sell and be willing to negotiate) as well as homes that might need some cosmetic updates that have been languishing on the market. It is important to remember that in this market, a great deal doesn’t necessarily mean a low price – it may just mean you don’t have to compete.

In every market there are opportunities that come with strategy. If you are a tired buyer, this is a great time to regroup and take advantage of your opportunities. Let’s talk! 253-222-2626 or john@altitude-re.com

Economists and analysts know that the country has experienced economic growth for almost a decade. They also know that a recession can’t be too far off. A recent report by Zillow Research shed light on a survey conducted by Pulsenomics in which they asked economists, investment strategists and market analysts how they felt about the current housing market. That report revealed the possible timing of the next recession:

“Experts largely expect the next recession to begin in 2020.”

That timing concurs with a recent survey of economists by the Wall Street Journal:

“The economic expansion that began in mid-2009 and already ranks as the second-longest in American history most likely will end in 2020 as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to cool off an overheating economy, according to forecasters surveyed.”

Here is a graph comparing the opinions of those surveyed by both the Wall Street Journal and Pulsenomics:

Recession DOES NOT Equal Housing Crisis

According to the Merriam-Webster Dictionary, a recession is defined as follows:

“A period of temporary economic decline during which trade and industrial activity are reduced, generally identified by a fall in GDP in two successive quarters.”

A recession means the economy has slowed down markedly. It does not mean we are experiencing another housing crisis. Obviously, the housing crash of 2008 caused the last recession. However, during the previous five recessions home values appreciated.

According to the experts surveyed by Pulsenomics, the top three probable triggers for the next recession are:

• Monetary policy
• Trade policy
• A stock market correction

A housing market correction was ranked ninth in probability. Those same experts also projected that home values would continue to appreciate in 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022.  

Others agree that housing will not be impacted like it was a decade ago.

Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist, explained:

“If a recession is to occur, it is unlikely to be caused by housing-related activity, and therefore the housing sector should be one of the leading sources to come out of the recession.”

And U.S. News and World Report agreed:

“Fortunately – and hopefully – the history of recessions and current issues that could harm the economy don’t lead many to believe the housing market crash will repeat itself in an upcoming decline.”

Bottom Line

A recession is probably less than two years away. A housing crisis is not.

There are many people sitting on the sidelines trying to decide if they should purchase a home or sign a rental lease. Some might wonder if it makes sense to purchase a house before they get married or start a family, some might think they are too young, and still, some others might think their current incomes would never enable them to qualify for a mortgage.

We want to share what the typical first-time homebuyer actually looks like based on the National Association of Realtors’ most recent Profile of Home Buyers & Sellers. Here are some interesting revelations on the first-time buyer:

Bottom Line

You may not be much different than many people who have already purchased their first homes. Let’s meet to determine if your dream home is within your grasp today.

The Aspiring Home Buyers Profile from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) found that the American public is still somewhat confused about what is required to qualify for a home mortgage loan in today’s housing market. The results of the survey show that the main reason why non-homeowners do not own their own homes is because they believe that they cannot afford them.

This brings us to two major misconceptions that we want to address today.

1. Down Payment

A recent survey by Laurel Road, the National Online Lender and FDIC-Insured Bank, revealed that consumers overestimate the down payment funds needed to qualify for a home loan.

According to the survey, 53% of Americans who plan to buy or have already bought a home admit to their concerns about their ability to afford a home in the current market. In addition, 46% are currently unfamiliar with alternative down payment options, and 46% of millennials do not feel confident that they could currently afford a 20% down payment.

What these people don’t realize, however, is that there are many loans written with down payments of 3% or less.

Many renters may actually be able to enter the housing market sooner than they ever imagined with new programs that have emerged allowing less cash out of pocket.

2. FICO^®Scores

An Ipsos survey revealed that 62% of respondents believe they need excellent credit to buy a home, with 43% thinking a “good credit score” is over 780. In actuality, the average FICO^® scores for approved conventional and FHA mortgages are much lower.

The average conventional loan closed in May had a credit score of 753, while FHA mortgages closed with an average score of 676. The average across all loans closed in May was 724. The chart below shows the distribution of FICO® Scores for all loans approved in May.

Bottom Line

If you are a prospective buyer who is ‘ready’ and ‘willing’ to act now, but you are not sure if you are ‘able’ to, let’s sit down to help you understand your true options today.

The housing crisis is finally in the rear-view mirror as the real estate market moves down the road to a complete recovery. Home values are up, home sales are up, and distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) have fallen to their lowest points in years. The market will continue to strengthen in 2018.

However, there is one thing that may cause the industry to tap the brakes: a lack of housing inventory. Buyer demand naturally increases during the summer months, but supply is not keeping up.

Here are the thoughts of a few industry experts on the subject:

Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at National Association of Realtors

“The worsening inventory crunch through the first three months of the year inflicted even more upward pressure on home prices in a majority of markets. Following the same trend over the last couple of years, a strengthening job market and income gains are not being met by meaningful sales gains because of unrelenting supply and affordability headwinds.”

Sam Khater, Chief Economist for Freddie Mac

“As we head into late spring, the demand for purchase credit remains rock solid, which should set us up for another robust summer home sales season. While this year’s high rates – up 50 basic points from a year ago – have put pressure on the budgets of some home shoppers, weak inventory levels are what’s keeping the housing market from a stronger sales pace.”

Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research forRealtor.com

“The dynamics of increased competition and buyer frustration are unlikely to change…In fact, the direction of the trend is pointing to a growing mismatch between the pool of prospective buyers and existing inventory.”

Bottom Line

If you are thinking of selling, now may be the time. Demand for your house will be strong at a time when there is very little competition. That could lead to a quick sale for a really good price.

With home values appreciating at record rates, some are concerned that we may be heading for another housing bubble like the one we experienced a decade ago. One of the major culprits of that housing boom and bust was the loosening of standards for mortgage credit.

In a study done at the University of North Carolina immediately after the crisis, it was revealed that:

“Lenders began originating large numbers of high risk mortgages from around 2004 to 2007, and loans from those vintage years exhibited higher default rates than loans made either before or after.”

A study by John V Duca, John Muellbauer, and Anthony Murphy concluded that those risky mortgages caused the housing crisis:

“Our findings indicate that swings in credit standards played a major, if not the major, role in driving the recent boom and bust in US house prices.”

How do today’s mortgage standards compare to those from 2004 to 2007?

The Mortgage Bankers’ Association tracts mortgage standards in their Mortgage Credit Availability Index (MCAI). A decline in the MCAI indicates that lending standards are tightening, while increases in the index are indicative of loosening credit. While the chart below shows the index going back to that period between 2004 and 2007 when loose standards caused the housing bubble, we can see that, though the index has risen slightly over the last several years, we are nowhere near the standards that precipitated the housing crisis.

Bottom Line

If anything, standards today are too tight and are preventing some qualified buyers from getting the mortgage credit they deserve.

People often ask if now is a good time to buy a home, but nobody ever asks whether or not it’s a good time to rent. Regardless, we want to make certain that everyone understands that now is NOT a good time to rent.

The Census Bureau recently released their 2018 first quarter median rent numbers. According to their report, here is a graph showing rent increases from 1988 until today:

As you can see, rents have steadily increased and are showing no signs of slowing down. If you are faced with making the decision of whether or not you should renew your lease, you might be pleasantly surprised at your ability to buy a home of your own instead.

Bottom Line

One way to protect yourself from rising rents is to lock in your housing expense by buying a home. If you are ready and willing to buy, let’s meet to determine if you are able to today!

According to recently released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median number of days that a home spent on the market hit a new low of 26 days in April, as 57% of homes were on the market for under a month.

NAR’s Chief Economist, Lawrence Yun, had this to say,

“What is available for sale is going under contract at a rapid pace. Since NAR began tracking this data in May 2011, the median days a listing was on the market was at an all-time low in April, and the share of homes sold in less than a month was at an all-time high.”

Strong buyer demand, a good economy, and a low inventory of new and existing homes for sale created the perfect storm to accelerate the time between listing and signing a contract.

The chart below shows the median days on the market from April 2017 to April 2018:

Bottom Line

If you are a homeowner who is debating whether or not to list your home for sale, know that national market conditions are primed for a quick turnaround! Let’s get together to discuss exactly what’s going on in our area, today!

How Much Will that Escalation Cost You?

 

In this market with very tight inventory and multiple offers, if you are shopping for a property, you might be faced with a tough decision when it comes to the price you offer. Of course, the offer isn’t just about price; there are a number of other terms that can be adjusted to benefit the seller but coming in with a strong offer price is usually a very important component.

Oftentimes if you make an offer within the first few days of the listing going live, you may not know if you are competing with one other offer, twenty other offers, or if it is just yourself. In cases like this, it might make sense to include an escalation clause, or additional terms that adjust the price upwards to beat the highest price by $x amount, not to exceed $x dollars.

For example, let’s say a house is on the market for $395,000 and you decide to offer above the asking price by offering $410,000. But you don’t want to miss out if someone offers $412,000. What you can do is hedge your bet by only committing to more than $410,000 if someone else does. This is done via an escalation clause. In this example, say you are willing to go up to $420,000. Your escalation clause might then indicate you are willing to beat the highest offer price by $500 but that the final price won’t exceed $420,000.

It can be tough to know where that sweet spot is and often decisions have to be made quickly. If you are faced with having to increase the price by $5,000, $10,000, or $20,000, you should know what that means for your resulting monthly payment in addition to your total outlay.  Below is a table that illustrates the additional monthly payment at $5,000 increments up to $50,000 at a number of interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage. These include principal and interest only.

	4.0%	4.5%	5.0%	5.5%	6.0%
$5,000	$23.87	$25.33	$26.84	$28.39	$29.98
$10,000	$47.74	$50.67	$53.68	$56.78	$59.96
$15,000	$71.61	$76.00	$80.52	$85.17	$89.93
$20,000	$95.48	$101.34	$107.36	$113.56	$119.91
$25,000	$119.35	$126.67	$134.21	$141.95	$149.89
$30,000	$143.22	$152.01	$161.05	$170.34	$179.87
$35,000	$167.10	$177.34	$187.89	$198.73	$209.84
$40,000	$190.97	$202.67	$214.73	$227.12	$239.82
$45,000	$214.84	$228.01	$241.57	$255.51	$269.80
$50,000	$238.71	$253.34	$268.41	$283.89	$299.78

 

Of course, you should make sure that whatever your offer price, it is within your financial comfort zone – and the bank’s! It is important to look at what the escalation clause will mean for your short-term and long-term goals and also realize that it is a means to an end – the end being your new home.

Escalation clauses don’t need to be scary. When you are ready to buy, I will work with you to make sure that your offer is consistent with your goals. Let’s talk! 253-222-2626 or john@altitude-re.com